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How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.

While many worry about population overload, this book highlights the dramatic fall in fertility rates globally exploring questions such as why are parents having fewer babies? Will this lead to population decline? What will be the impact of a world with fewer children and can social policy reverse fertility decline?

This book looks at the PPP persistence puzzle, and econometric aspects of exchange rate dynamics and their implications. It also explores the importance of exchange rate dynamics in the pass-through effects (PTE) and the econometric aspects of the exchange rates dynamics linked to structural shocks on different economies.

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"Halley's Comet has been prominently displayed in many newspapers during the last few months. For the first time in 76 years it appeared this winter, the nocturnal sky. This is an appropriate occasion to clearly visible against point out the fact that Sir Edmund Halley also constructed the world's first life table in 1693, thus creating the scientific foundation of life insurance. Halley's life table and its successors were viewed as deterministic laws, i. e. the number of deaths in any given group and year was considered to be a well defined number that could be calculated by means of a life table. However, in reality this number is random. Thus any mathematical treatment of life insurance will have to rely more and more on probability theory. By sponsoring this monograph the Swiss Association of Actuaries wishes to support the ""modern"" probabilistic view of life contingencies. We are fortu­ nate that Professor Gerber, an internationally renowned expert, has assumed the task of writing the monograph. We thank the Springer-Verlag and hope that this monograph will be the first in a successful series of actuarial texts. Zurich, March 1986 Hans Biihlmann President Swiss Association of Actuaries Preface Two major developments have influenced the environment of actuarial math­ ematics. One is the arrival of powerful and affordable computers; the once important problem of numerical calculation has become almost trivial in many instances."

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